Thursday
Dec292011

2012 Regulatory Outlook: New Year, Same Basic Goals  

FCC Agenda Likely to Stay Laser-Focused on Broadband, Spectrum

2011 was undoubtedly a landmark year for Julius Genachowski & Friends, but will 2012 include great leaps forward as USF/ICC reform, Connect to Compete and the White Spaces? The FCC certainly has its work cut out tying up loose ends on all three of these seminal issues.  We can likely anticipate further powerful thrusts to improve wired and wireless broadband deployment and adoption in 2012, as well as initiatives to alleviate the spectrum crunch.

2012 might be the Year of the Reverse Auction. Reverse auctions could be spectacularly disastrous or sensationally effective, depending on a variety of factors including auction design and industry participation. Two other issues that RLECs should watch for in 2012 are solutions for the rural call termination problems and the PSTN transition—I would expect proceedings on both in 2012, and hopefully a swift resolution to the call termination problems. 

A December 8 speech by Commissioner Robert McDowell to the Federal Communications Bar Association titled “2012: The Year of the U.N. Regulation of the Internet?” revealed some clues about what may come in 2012 at the FCC. I was most excited about this possibility: “Until it actually happens, I will keep talking about launching and concluding a proceeding to reform our Universal Service program’s contribution methodology by mid-year.” As the USF contribution rate reaches an all-time high of nearly 18%, the FCC should have adequate pressure to make a move on contributions reform. Additionally, USF contributions reform is basically the last box left to check under the National Broadband Plan goals for modernizing USF. The question is: who will have to contribute under the new methodology? Will all broadband service providers and consumers be on the chopping block? What about major content providers like Google and Netflix? I expect that the contributions reform proceeding will be every bit as action-packed and controversial as the 2011 USF/ICC reform proceedings.

We aren’t nearly finished grappling with the November 18 USF/ICC Reform Order either—not by a long shot. Comments in response to the FNPRM are due in several rounds throughout January, February and March. Following these comment cycles, we will possibly get some resolution on 2011 rural telecom cliff-hangers like rate-of-return re-prescription, CAF methodologies for RLECs, broadband public interest obligations, IP interconnection, and the Remote Areas Fund.

A Policy “Roulette Wheel”

The dreaded HCLS regression analysis will cause no end of headaches for RLECs in 2012 as these companies will need to play a rather sadistic guessing game with their costs in order to avoid placement at or above the ninetieth percentile. The precise regression analysis methodology will be finalized through the FNPRM—it is very concerning that the proposed methodology inserts such a great deal of unpredictability in HCLS because RLECs will not know in advance if they will fall above the ninetieth percentile—this level of unpredictability is far greater than the rather constant artificial increases in the NACPL used to cap current HCLS.

The FCC appears to protect itself from legal challenges by adopting a regression analysis methodology that will be used, predictably, but the methodology itself is where things get murky. In other words, it is predictable that the FCC will use the regression analysis, but it is unpredictable as to how individual companies are impacted by the model. The unfortunate carriers who fall in or above the ninetieth percentile of similarly situated carriers may face a double-whammy punishment: clipped support and ineligibility to receive redistributed support.    

John Staurulakis Inc. economic and policy director Douglas Meredith provided the following statement about the regression analysis: “The FCC regression methodology proposed to limit capital and operational expenditures is fraught with policy and technical challenges.  This method is an order of magnitude less predictable for individual carriers than the current HCLS mechanism—even with the current capping procedure.  This method has been summarized as a ‘race to the middle.’  If adopted, we should consider whether a capital expenditure race to the middle will promote and advance universal service in high-cost and remotely populated areas of the nation.” 

Meredith continues, “I submit that the proposed method fails to achieve the Congressional goals for universal service.  In addition to serious policy concerns, the technical aspects of the proposed method are also suspect: study areas that are missing from the FCC’s analysis, descriptive independent variables missing from the model, relatively low goodness of fit measures and a high reliance on covariance relationships among carriers makes the application of this regression method look more like a roulette wheel in Las Vegas than well-established public policy.”

There’s a First Time for Everything

As mentioned above, I expect 2012 to be the Year of Reverse Auctions. The FCC is responsible for designing—for the first time ever—reverse auctions for second phases of the Mobility Fund and the wireline broadband Connect America Fund. Furthermore, if Congress releases under-utilized government spectrum in 2012, the FCC may also be tasked with designing auctions for this spectrum too. According to McDowell’s December 8 speech, “If that were to occur in 2012, suddenly the Commission could be working furiously on auction and service rules, band plans and such throughout the year.”

Voluntary incentive auction legislation has passed in the House, which Genachowski praised as a “major achievement.” Genachowski’s December 13 statement explains that the legislation “would authorize the Federal Communications Commission to conduct voluntary incentive auctions as recommended in the FCC’s National Broadband Plan. This would free up new spectrum for mobile broadband, driving investment, innovation, and job creation; generating many billions of dollars in revenue; and helping foster U.S. leadership in mobile broadband.” Genachowski insists that FCC incentive auction authority “needs to become law;” but warns that the House bill “could be counterproductive” by downplaying FCC policies to promote unlicensed spectrum and limiting the FCC’s ability to develop band plans and auction structures “in ways that maximize the value of licensed spectrum.”

How will the FCC avoid pitfalls associated with reverse auctions, which have been implemented internationally with less-than-stellar results? How will the FCC ensure that small rural carriers have a fair shot in future auctions? The Mobility Fund Phase II proceeding may provide an excellent opportunity for small carriers to state their demands and recommend a methodology that is fair for companies of all shapes and sizes. But... will the FCC listen, or pull a Consensus Framework 2.0, demanding industry input then essentially ignoring it?

Broadband for President in 2012

The FCC built up considerable momentum in 2011 with broadband adoption and deployment initiatives; but the U.S. has a whole lot of work to do before reclaiming #1 in the world for broadband adoption, deployment and speed—a spot in the top ten would be a nice goal for now. You can debate how important international broadband rankings are in the grand scheme of things, but with a presidential election on the horizon it probably wouldn’t be out of line to speculate that America’s sub-par international broadband ranking could become a hot-button issue in 2012.

A December 14 FCC blog post by Josh Gottheimer and Jordan Usdan includes a line that could easily be inserted into any run-of-the-mill campaign sound-byte: “Closing the digital divide isn’t just an economic issue, it’s one of the great civil rights challenges of our time. Broadband can be the great equalizer – giving every American with an Internet connection access to a world of new opportunities that might otherwise be beyond their reach.” The common assumption among politicos is that more broadband means more jobs, so increasing broadband will surely make it into multiple presidential-hopefuls’ campaigns. As a result, the FCC could be pressured to take further drastic steps to influence broadband adoption and deployment, even if 2011 initiatives (like Connect to Compete, for example) prove unsuccessful at actually adding percentage points to deployment and adoption rates.

The Legislative and Legal Fronts

2012 is also looking to be a significant year for telecom and Internet-related legislation and legal decisions. The Internet ecosystem is in an uproar over House and Senate legislation to combat online piracy and “rogue” foreign websites, to the extent that the uproar over net neutrality almost pales in comparison. Given the public outcry, it seems unlikely that SOPA or PIPA will pass as they stand, but we can probably expect similar legislation to go through in 2012—hopefully it won’t kill the Internet as we know it.

A House bill to actually reform the FCC is still a live wire on the Hill, so we might continue to see a power struggle between Congress and the independent agency charged with regulating telecom that we all love so much. According to a December 20 Politico article, Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) “called the FCC ‘way out of control,’” and stated, “’We need to reign them in and remind them that their job is not to manage the industry but to provide just a light hand of regulation to make sure there is fairness.’”

Additionally, courts in DC and Denver will hear appeals cases on net neutrality and USF/ICC reform, respectively. Although it is too early to tell how these cases will conclude, we can’t rule out the possibility that the decisions could throw a wrench into the regulations and reforms that the FCC spent the better part of the last 3 years bringing to fruition.

If the regulatory theme of 2010 was the National Broadband Plan (with net neutrality a close second) and USF/ICC reform dominated 2011; what will be the one thing that we will remember the 2012 FCC for accomplishing? You know my guess is designing and implementing reverse auctions for the Mobility Fund, CAF and re-released spectrum, but what do you think?

Thursday
Dec292011

2011's Broadband Bonanza Means New "Explorations" in 2012

While researching for a profile on Paul Bunyan Communications several months ago, I was struck by the cooperative's 60-plus years of underdog status—a fitting 2011 year-end metaphor for many of the companies I talk to across the country. There, in Minnesota, was a cooperative that organized in 1950 to connect underserved areas, and was helped along in its goal by federal legislation that sought to improve rural telephone service. Now, as 2011 draws to a close and we look ahead to what 2012 will bring, many companies I've interviewed this year are still trying to reach underserved areas—this time with broadband—and doing so is part of the larger, national plan to bring valuable high-speed internet connections to every home and business, in every community. With the year ending, these companies and co-ops are also hoping that broadband subs will help offset landline losses; this may be the last year for such a ying-yang balance, too, as broadband growth slows and it becomes less likely these adds will be able to offset the losses going forward.

A sweeping dedication to broadband will certainly continue into 2012, but boy has the game gotten more complex.Thanks to the recent detailed analysis offered by our own Cassandra Heyne, I won't use this space to parse out the specifics of federal funding for broadband or other regulatory hurdles facing rural providers. But I would like to reflect on what 2011 has meant for the rural service providers, cooperatives, start-ups, and advocacy groups I've spent the year researching and interviewing. Whether the goal was to tap into vertical markets, harness the potential of the cloud, or test out new services and platforms, without a question the name of the game this year was broadband—how to build-out fiber networks, how to increase speeds, how to offers services via broadband, how to pool resources and efforts through alliances and consortiums, how to share resources and infrastructure, how to get into the data storage market, and so on. Ultimately 2011 centered on a challenge and a source of opportunity; both are captured in the phrase I heard over and over again—“broadband build-out."

2011: Betting on Broadband

Just last week, new ceo of 3 Rivers Communications David Gibson summed up one of the most fitting characterizations for rural and independent companies. In an interview for the Great Falls Tribune, he said that, without a doubt, “Fiber is the way of the future... When you replace all that copper [with fiber] the service quality is better; you get much faster broadband speeds. You can offer IPTV. It's just good all around, it's where we need to be to position ourselves.” But Gibson went on to note the snags in building out rural broadband—threats to funding by “problems... in the mechanics” of the new Connect America fund and threats of stiff competition from satellite and wireless broadband, encroaching cable companies, municipal-owned broadband and others.

This year, I've talked to rural co-ops, independent providers, advocacy groups and consortiums in Kentucky, Ohio, Minnesota, Tennessee, Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Texas and the Dakotas, and for all of them, broadband was central to their goal of providing new services and connecting unserved or underserved rural communities. In some cases, broadband meant better connectivity for local high schools, community colleges or universities; in other cases, there were advances in telemedicine, improvements for tribal communities, or farming technologies. But in every case, the directors and spokespersons I interviewed insisted that broadband brought with it the possibilities for a changed community and more vibrant opportunities for rural residents and businesses. And they had examples of these improvements... many, many examples.

The question remains, however, do these broadband build-outs actually mean more stability for the ILECs and co-ops, many who find themselves in an increasingly competitive market? Will all of the federal dollars in broadband grants and build-outs in 2011 equal more advancements to rural areas in 2012? Will rural providers need to delve more deeply into new options like LTE and cloud services to remain relevant? Or will fiber as the “way of the future” actually mean subscriber retention and added revenue? These are all questions to investigate in the coming year, by talking to the experts on the front lines: the rural providers themselves.

2012: Building on Broadband, Exploring New Territory

Just recently we've seen announcements about IPTV and LTE—two services that are getting attention from rural ILECs and co-ops who consider them potential golden tickets. Most likely, 2012 will bring more in-depth look at what these services might mean for the independent communications provider industry—most specifically for the rural companies I talk to regularly. LTE's potential is up in the air (pun intended), but IPTV has already become a key talking point for ILECs who want to attract and retain customers in their communities. Earlier this year, we ran the numbers and found that, for the companies who disclosed that they provided video services, “their rate of decline in access lines... was sharply lower than those in the survey who did not provide data on video subscribers.”

Several of the companies I profiled to this year—Palmetto Rural Telephone Cooperative and Paul Bunyan Communications, to name two—named IPTV as central to their business strategy going forward. Earlier this month, Texas ILEC Valley Telephone Cooperative announced that it would offer a hybrid IPTV service that combines HDTV, DVR and cloud services through a single TV input and interface. And last month, Griswold Cooperative Telephone Company announced it would use its hefty $12.7m RUS loan, in part, to lay fiber that would support advanced services like IPTV.

As for LTE, it will be interesting to see what comes of the partnership between rural ILECs/ rural cellular providers and Verizon's Rural 4G LTE Program. Just last week, Pioneer Cellular (of Kingfisher, OK-based Pioneer Telephone) announced its first successful end-to-end data test with Verizon's 700 MHz spectrum, and so far Pioneer is just one of 13 rural providers partnering with Verizon for use of its LTE network. The goal, of course, is to provide LTE services in areas where Verizon does not plan to extend coverage, and, through the program, rural partners are allowed to build and operate their own LTE network, using some elements of Verizon's core network. Just as cooperatives and partnerships have helped bring fiber to rural areas, it's possible that partnerships between small, rural providers and the Big Guys could supplement existing services and retain customers. It's possible.

Ultimately the influence of LTE in rural areas remains to be seen, but it is a step toward spectrum use that so many rural providers have looked into but not developed. In my own discussions this year, I have heard numerous company spokespersons say that they were currently “exploring the possibilities” of spectrum for a variety of services, but had not made any definite commitments. Perhaps 2012 will bear the fruit of these, and many other, “explorations.”

Wednesday
Dec282011

Digging Deep: Palmetto Rural Looks to Bury Its Competition

When Chuck Crabtree joined Palmetto Rural Telephone Cooperative as its Director of Marketing this year, he was attracted to the co-op's commitment to broadband and advanced services like IPTV. Right now he says PRTC is making great progress towards an extensive fiber build-out that will cover most of Colleton County, South Carolina. And PRTC has been able to fund this upgrade to FTTH “without any big grants. We're mostly doing it ourselves, utilizing business loans,” Crabtree said. With many ILECs and cooperatives counting on broadband, PRTC's story may not seem like a unique one—but the provider's embrace of services like IPTV and advanced video platforms, is. According to Crabtree, PRTC is fighting “formidable competitors” like Comcast and Frontier by offering richer, dependable services through fiber. In underserved areas of the county, PRTC is the first to lay fiber and, in doing so, hopes to better serve its entire territory.

Crabtree characterized PRTC's service area as a combination of Low Country rural lands and small- to mid-sized towns. “Currently we've completed roughly 15% of our fiber build-out, but the overall fiber-to-the-home plan will take longer,” he said. “It's a lot of work. They don't call us the Low Country for nothing— we have a lot of wetlands and it can be very swampy, but we're absolutely committed to getting fiber to every home, even the most remote areas.”

Of course, fiber builds can be tricky for smaller companies and co-ops, with cost often exceeding return on investment. But Crabtree says that PRTC has taken great measures not to just provide broadband services, but to do so with media platforms that rival those from large competitors. Earlier this year, PRTC announced it was transitioning its IPTV-based video services to Alcatel-Lucent's starter pack end-to-end solution, which included the Microsoft Mediaroom 2.0 software platform. Mediaroom, created specifically for Tier 1 service providers, “helped get rid of some traditional IPTV problems, but also opens up new opportunities,” Crabtree said. “Some telcos deploy IPTV and then really aren't thrilled with what they're able to provide. But for us, Mediaroom was really a great choice for the consumer. It really is a very slick, great interface,” he said, noting that the platform makes it possible to introduce VOD, whole-home DVR, caller ID over the TV, and even remote DVR services. Right now, the co-op's IPTV services are about 10% penetrated, but Crabtree says that Mediaroom should dramatically increase marketability and will allow PRTC to “ratchet up marketing for this particular service. We're already seeing great responses, and we believe it's going to be successful.”

But for PRTC, the fiber build-out is about much more than just IPTV services alone. It's about “future-proofing,” as Crabtree put it. “The more fiber you have, the more you can do with it. Fiber-to-the-home provides almost limitless bandwidth capacity, allowing our customers to share multi-media content, watch videos on any device, and so on.” In other words, PRTC is looking to provide the bells-and-whistles that the Big Guys provide, but they plan to bring it to even the most remote areas where subscribers live and do business.

In some areas, DirecTV and Dish Network provide stiff competition, Crabtree acknowledged, but when it comes to providing the whole package of services, PRTC still maintains an edge. In Colleton County, Comcast provides TV and Internet services, but no voice service, and Frontier offers voice and broadband in small pockets of coverage. “We keep hearing rumors of improvements coming down from the Charleston area [in regard to Comcast], but right now they have a pretty standard offering. Our TV service is much richer, according to what we offer, and of course we have a whole package of services we provide.”

Crabtree noted the importance of broadband in small communities and rural areas—something that he says is threatened by recent changes to USF funding. When asked about how the Connect America fund will impact cooperatives like PRTC, Crabtree said, “We stand with everyone at NTCA and the other ILECs who have voiced their opposition to these changes. We're working fast and furious to run fiber and offer as high a service level as possible, and the cutting of USF funds hurts our efforts to do that in the fashion we'd like. We're not happy about the changes in the way they're distributing funds.”

Despite these federal battles, like most cooperatives, PRTC is committed to improving its community, Crabtree said. “We are very involved in the area, and are especially excited about the advanced services that the Colleton County Medical Center is able to offer through our broadband connection.” He explained that, in the past, the facility had to rely on its sister hospital in Charleston for difficult diagnoses, advanced technologies, and specialist services. This often included transporting patients via helicopter or a one-and-a-half hour drive. But now, in seconds, doctors at CCMC can send data to physicians in Charleston and get a detailed diagnosis right away. Doctors at CCMC are also making use of iPads to collect patient information; hospital management will soon rely on “hot boards” to streamline providers and get physicians to the hospital when demand increases, and the hospital website will offer online updates on emergency room wait times. Crabtree said, “These are super patient-friendly services and, while they've had our [PRTC's] broadband for years, they're now really expanding the utilization of its functionality.”

In addition to medical services, Crabtree said that PRTC's broadband has been “a real game-changer” for Colleton County High School and Colleton Preparatory Academy. “We offer broadband connections to each school in a way that fits their needs very well... and we partner with the local schools all the time—to sponsor athletic departments and support recreational teams. We really try to have a local presence in a variety of ways,” Crabtree said, explaining that PRTC also provides telecommunications services to the police and fire departments and sponsors fundraisers for March of Dimes. “That personal connection is really important,” he said.

One of PRTC's smaller business divisions is its wireless service, which Crabtree said is branded PRTC Wireless but also accesses one of the largest networks in the country. PRTC has offered wireless for the last 2-3 years and hopes to more aggressively promote “a quad play in the future,” Crabtree said. “It's not an easy business to grow in, but we're doing it, slowly but surely.”

As for the regional area surrounding PRTC's base in Walterboro, South Carolina—the county seat of Colleton County—there is plenty of growth to go around. PRTC's service area sits outside the main competitive markets of the Charleston area, but the county enjoys growth from nearby economic expansion. Early this month a new aerospace company, Colleton Aerospace LLC, announced it would construct a $15m plant in the county, bringing 300 jobs to the area and hopefully spurring development in the Low Country. PRTC is already scheduled to be the telecommunications supplier to Colleton Aerospace, and Crabtree noted that this was just one of the ways that the area is continuing to see growth in jobs, residential expansion, and population increases. Recently Boeing opened a new facility in North Charleston and tire manufacturers Bridgestone, Continental, and Michelin have all made significant investments in the surrounding area. Likely this growth will spill into PRTC's service area, and Crabtree says the company has already been active in Charleston media markets. “We can't help but think our region's growth will help us, and we hope to enjoy some of its success.”

Tuesday
Dec272011

November – December 2011: The Dawn of the Winter of our Discontent

2011 Ends with RLECs, Small Cablecos and AT&T Searching for a Bright Light

Part 4 of “2011: The Regulatory Year in Review.” When you look at everything that has happened in telecom in the last two months alone, the entire rest of the year seems almost inconsequential in comparison. The whirlwind of activity in the past six weeks was one part culmination of several longstanding regulatory-industry entanglements and one part FCC commissioners wanting to get things done before two new commissioners take their seats at the table in 2012. No matter how you mix it up, the FCC served up a smorgasbord of prime cuts and rotten left-overs for both Thanksgiving and Christmas.

November 2011: We endured most of the year with only four FCC commissioners, and the knowledge that Commissioner Michael Copps would be departing at the end of the year. I had some personal objections to a four-member commission approving something as monumental as the USF/ICC Order, but it is unlikely the outcome would have been different even with the full five. Still, one can wonder…

On November 1 President Obama nominated Jessica Rosenworcel and Ajit Pai to fill the empty seats starting in 2012. Rosenworcel will replace Copps; she hails from the Senate Commerce Committee and has served the FCC as senior legal advisor to Copps and Wireline Competition Bureau chief. Pai will fill Baker’s seat and was formerly a partner at Jenner & Block. Pai’s resume also includes the Senate Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Civil rights, the Office of Legal Policy at the Justice Department and the FCC.

Pai might be a much-needed advocate for rural telecommunications as he was raised in Kansas. According to Senator Jerry Moran (R-KS), “Ajit is a humble and hard worker – just what you would expect from a Kansan. He is the type of person you would like to have as your neighbor.“ Moran’s statement continues, “The FCC also needs commissioners who are committed to the needs of all Americans, including those who live in rural America, so its innovators can compete in the marketplace along those in urban areas. A native of Parsons, Kansas, Ajit will bring an understanding of the challenges facing our part of the country at this vital time for the future of telecommunications.” One major criticism of the FCC this year has been that they simply do not understand rural America (even though Genachowski visited Diller, NE), so Pai may bring a welcome and necessary perspective to the urban-centric Commission.

On November 9, Genachowski announced “Connect to Compete,” a broadband adoption initiative focused on low-income families. Connect to Compete and its cousin Comcast Internet Essentials promise to provide broadband to qualifying low-income families for $9.95 per month as well as access to digital literacy training and low cost computers. Dozens of big-name tech companies have signed on to participate in Connect 2 Compete. As these low-income programs pick up steam in 2012, there may be some market pressure for RLECs to respond in kind. However, reports are already coming in that very few low-income families are even qualifying for Comcast’s Internet Essentials program—one requirement is that participants cannot have outstanding bills with the company. (The ILEC Advisor: The FCC’s Egalitarian Cable Broadband Initiative: What does it Mean for RLECs?).

As Thanksgiving drew closer, the entire telecom industry was watching FCC.gov like a hawk waiting for the USF/ICC Order. Rumors swirled regarding the release date, length of the document, and changes that may have been made after the October 27 Open Meeting vote. On November 19 around 6:30 PM EST, I was planning my weekend and looking forward to a relaxing evening when I received the news that the order was released, and it was a doozy at 759 pages long. The Order more closely resembled the February NPRM than the industry’s Consensus Framework, which has caused more than a few to wonder if the FCC’s insistence that the industry draft an alternative was just a smoke-and-mirrors diversion. The Order has received criticism from the Hill for being released late, extremely long, and likely modified after the vote contrary to the open and transparent principles that the Commission is supposed to abide. Criticism aside, the USF/ICC Reform Order is certainly one of the most significant events for RLECs since the 1996 Act. (The ILEC Advisor: Introducing the Connect America Fund – USF Reform Overview).

Many of us were pleased that the USF/ICC Order was released a week before Thanksgiving, thus saving the holiday (although I spent most of the holiday reading it). However, AT&T/T-Mobile merger groupies got their fill of Thanksgiving goodness when the FCC announced on November 23 that it was opposed to the merger and an administrative hearing would be held to further consider the facts—the kiss of death, according to some experts. Following this decision, things got really ugly between AT&T and the FCC for a few weeks. (The Deal Advisor: FCC Calls for Hearing on AT&T/T-Mobile Combo).

December 2011: December has seen RLECs struggling to comprehend the USF/ICC rules, AT&T battling with the FCC and DOJ, small cablecos fighting with local broadcasters over outrageous retransmission fees, and the FCC grappling with when and how to abandon the PSTN.

The best drama unfolded before my very eyes on December 1, 2011. Not 15 hours earlier, the FCC had released its staff report detailing why it was opposed to the AT&T//T-Mobile deal—including AT&T’s egregious jobs claims and questionable economic analysis and engineering models. Needless to say, the staff report was the talk of the town in DC the following morning, when AT&T’s senior executive vice president for external and legislative affairs Jim Cicconi released a sharply-worded blog post damning the staff report as “obviously one-sided” and “an advocacy piece.”

Immediately after Cicconi’s blog post was released, he was a panelist at the Phoenix Center’s 2011 Annual U.S. Telecoms Symposium, which I attended—I was surprised that he even showed up. At the Symposium, Cicconi made some strange remarks comparing consumer behavior with cell carriers to religion; and at one point he commented that he was glad there weren’t any hard questions about the merger or the FCC staff report. He also made a comment about how telecom regulation is designed to protect companies, not consumers, which sent shock-waves through the city. This initiated a day of he-said-FCC-said PR battles on Twitter and the AT&T Public Policy blog. But at the end of the day, the AT&T/T-Mobile merger was still essentially doomed…and just over two weeks later AT&T announced that the deal was, in fact, dead. (The Deal Advisor: The Deal is Dead! Now What?)

Court challenges to the USF/ICC Order predictably rolled in throughout the month, with 13 lawsuits to date from small telephone companies, NTCA, state public utility commissions, a couple wireless companies, and AT&T. A judicial panel selected the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver, CO as the venue—apparently a good court for this particular subject matter. The issues in the lawsuits range from states’ loss of power to bill and keep. I got the impression that the FCC protected itself from legal challenges quite thoroughly in the Order, so it will definitely be interesting to see how this case unfolds next year. (The ILEC Advisor: Let the Challenges Begin! USF/ICC Order under Attack as Parties Turn to Courts).

Finally in December the FCC held two informative public workshops on transitioning the PSTN to all-IP; but the workshops left plenty of uncertainty regarding the path forward. Despite gathering over 50 experts from all corners of the industry, there was still not a clear definition on what the PSTN actually is or why it should be forcibly transitioned since it is already clearly in transition. Questions aside, the PSTN workshops were extremely informative and likely signaled the beginning of what is surely to be a high-priority initiative at the FCC in the next year. (The ILEC Advisor: The PSTN is Already in Transition… What is the PSTN, Anyway?, The PSTN: Sunset, Transition, Rebirth, or Just Leave it Alone?).  

Well, that about does it for 2011… It has been an exciting year! Coming up next, JSI Capital Advisors will speculate on several big regulatory topics for 2012.

Thursday
Dec222011

August – October 2011: FCC Yields to no Earthquake, Hurricane or Industry Consensus 

Exactly How Many New Jobs will Broadband Create?

Part 3 of “2011: The Regulatory Year in Review.” Autumn was intense—no doubt about that. From the early August release of the Public Notice on the ABC Plan to the October 27 FCC vote on the USF Order, these 3 months were chock-full of excitement. One trend I noticed during this time was the overwhelming number of job creation claims associated with government and private sector broadband initiatives. Sure, broadband helps create jobs and certainly provides new possibilities for individuals to further their educations, start businesses at home, and conduct commerce on an international scale. But will a few government decisions and one colossal merger create literally millions of new jobs? Or is “broadband = tons of jobs” just the catch phase of the year?

August 2011: August began with the Public Notice on the ABC Plan and ended with a rapid-fire comment cycle. In between these events, we saw several natural disasters and an unprecedented FCC blog post on USF/ICC reform signed by all 4 Commissioners proclaiming that the Public Notice “marks the final stage of our reform process.”

On August 4 in Jefferson, Indiana, FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski announced “jobs4america,” “a new coalition of forward-looking businesses committed to bringing thousands of new jobs in America.”  If you are keeping a tally of broadband-related job creation claims, add 100,000 to the list—primarily broadband-enabled call center jobs, including home-based call centers. Genachowski applauded a new call center in Indiana, adding “So broadband really is enabling new economic opportunities, creating jobs and revitalizing communities—including some communities that thought their best days might be behind them.” Of course, he made sure to mention his recent trip to rural Diller, Nebraska. A fact sheet about jobs4america lists 575 broadband-enabled call center jobs that have actually recently been created, and another 17,500 or so “job creation goals over the next two years.” So… 100,000? Seems like a stretch.

The job claims didn’t stop with the FCC—President Obama also pledged to bring new jobs to rural America at an August 16 Town Hall meeting in Peosta, Iowa. Obama’s visit complemented a White House Rural Economic Forum and the release of a White House Rural Council report, “Jobs and Economic Security for Rural America.” One of the primary goals of the Council is to deploy broadband to 7 million rural Americans currently unserved, which will help enable distance learning, health care, and of course—new jobs! (The ILEC Advisor: Obama Pledges Rural Jobs and Economic Growth).

Finally, who will ever forget AT&T’s preposterous claim that the merger with T-Mobile will create 96,000 jobs? Certainly not anyone who lived in DC these past few months, as AT&T blanketed the media with commercials and print ads touting this alleged benefit of the merger.  On the same day that AT&T ceo Randall Stephenson told CNBC that the company would bring 5,000 international call center jobs back to the U.S, the Department of Justice slapped AT&T with the allegedly-shocking news (to AT&T anyway) that it had filed a suit to block the deal. (The Deal Advisor: Surprise, Surprise…DOJ Says “No Way” to AT&T – T-Mobile Merger).

September 2011: DC was still shaking and drying out from the August hurri-quake in early September, and the FCC responded by holding a public safety workshop on network reliability and outage reporting. Genachowski stated, “The hurricane and earthquake also shed light on ways we can continue to enhance our work to ensure the reliability of communications during and following disasters… Our experience with these events will inform our pending rulemaking on outage reporting… [and] our separate but related inquiry on network reliability.” Meanwhile, another threat to public safety has emerged over the last couple years in the form of rural call termination problems, but the FCC has moved much slower to address this issue than they did to address two East Coast natural disasters that caused very little disruption to communications networks. A large portion of the FCC’s September agenda was dominated by public safety, disaster preparation and network reliability topics.

A significant step in developing the White Space spectrum occurred on September 14 with Genachowski’s announcement of a 45-day public trial of the Spectrum Bridge Inc. White Space database. Genachowski explained, “Unleashing white space spectrum will enable a new wave of wireless innovation. It has the potential to exceed the billions of dollars in economic benefit from Wi-Fi, the last significant release of unlicensed spectrum, and drive private investment and job creation.” No word on how many hundreds of thousands of jobs the White Spaces may create, but definitely look for more progress on White Space spectrum development in 2012.

Job fever continued with the September 12 release of the Obama Administration’s American Jobs Act legislative proposal which included a “National Wireless Initiative” to repurpose underutilized spectrum through incentive auctions, reduce the federal deficit, and of course, create jobs (The ILEC Advisor: American Jobs Act Includes Wireless Initiative, Public Safety Network). Despite all of the heavy-duty job creation claims by the FCC, White House and telecom providers; some rural stakeholders warned that the FCC’s proposal for USF/ICC reform will actually eliminate jobs. Impact studies conducted by universities in New Mexico, Kansas, Colorado and Missouri made dire predictions about RLEC jobs, state and local taxes, RLEC wages, and total economic impact in their respective states. Although I was skeptical about some of the calculations, these impact studies definitely carried an important message about the value of RLECs to local and regional economies (The ILEC Advisor: New Mexico Study Depicts Life without USF, State USF Reform Impact Studies Predict RLEC “Death Spiral”).

October 2011: As the death of Steve Jobs rocked the galaxy, Genachowski’s October 6 announcement that the USF/ICC rules would indeed be on the October open meeting agenda launched the telecom industry into one final frenzy.  Unfortunately, Genachowski’s big reveal did little to ease our anticipation as it gave very few solid clues as to what “devils” were lurking in the details of the Order. Genachowski predictably mentioned his visit to Diller, Nebraska and claimed the reforms will “spur billions of dollars in private investment and very significant job creation”— 500,000 jobs to be exact.

We expected the Order would be about 400-500 pages long, and would be released shortly after the October 27 Open Meeting, where it was approved unanimously. We were wrong… Although we had to wait a few more weeks for the rules, the Commissioners revealed enough at the Open Meeting for it to become clear that the ABC Plan/Consensus Framework/RLEC Plan were not adopted in entirety, or really at all. Thus began 3 weeks of general panic. (The ILEC Advisor: Finally – Genachowski’s Big Announcement on USF/ICC Reform).

The FCC threw the RLECs a bone on October 18 with a workshop to address rural call termination problems. The workshop was a good first step to publically bring attention to the pervasive issue, but it almost seemed “too little too late.” After all, these problems have been increasingly occurring for more than a year. Thousands upon thousands of calls have not reached their rural destinations, harming small businesses, threatening public safety and straining family relationships with great aunt Gertrude. Rural panelists urged the FCC to issue forfeitures and fines to companies found intentionally blocking or degrading calls to high-cost rural areas, but so far no actions have been taken. Expect this issue to rear its ugly head in 2012. (The ILEC Advisor: FCC Finally Gets the Message about Rural Call Termination Problems, Rural Panelists Discuss Call Termination Problems – Causes, Effects, Solutions).  

Also notable in October, the Net Neutrality rules finally stopped collecting dust in the Office of the Federal Register storage room. Political polarization over the rules became almost too much to handle. Lawsuits from the left and right popped up faster than you can say “anti-discrimination,” and we can all look forward to a 2012 court showdown between Verizon, Free Press, the FCC and others at the U.S. Appeals Court in Washington. (The ILEC Advisor: Net Neutrality Fight Intensifies – In Washington Anyway).

While not without hurricane-force excitement, the early fall months were certainly the calm before the real storm—look for the final installment of “2011: The Regulatory Year in Review” covering November and December next week!