Exactly How Many New Jobs will Broadband Create?
Part 3 of “2011: The Regulatory Year in Review.” Autumn was intense—no doubt about that. From the early August release of the Public Notice on the ABC Plan to the October 27 FCC vote on the USF Order, these 3 months were chock-full of excitement. One trend I noticed during this time was the overwhelming number of job creation claims associated with government and private sector broadband initiatives. Sure, broadband helps create jobs and certainly provides new possibilities for individuals to further their educations, start businesses at home, and conduct commerce on an international scale. But will a few government decisions and one colossal merger create literally millions of new jobs? Or is “broadband = tons of jobs” just the catch phase of the year?
August 2011: August began with the Public Notice on the ABC Plan and ended with a rapid-fire comment cycle. In between these events, we saw several natural disasters and an unprecedented FCC blog post on USF/ICC reform signed by all 4 Commissioners proclaiming that the Public Notice “marks the final stage of our reform process.”
On August 4 in Jefferson, Indiana, FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski announced “jobs4america,” “a new coalition of forward-looking businesses committed to bringing thousands of new jobs in America.” If you are keeping a tally of broadband-related job creation claims, add 100,000 to the list—primarily broadband-enabled call center jobs, including home-based call centers. Genachowski applauded a new call center in Indiana, adding “So broadband really is enabling new economic opportunities, creating jobs and revitalizing communities—including some communities that thought their best days might be behind them.” Of course, he made sure to mention his recent trip to rural Diller, Nebraska. A fact sheet about jobs4america lists 575 broadband-enabled call center jobs that have actually recently been created, and another 17,500 or so “job creation goals over the next two years.” So… 100,000? Seems like a stretch.
The job claims didn’t stop with the FCC—President Obama also pledged to bring new jobs to rural America at an August 16 Town Hall meeting in Peosta, Iowa. Obama’s visit complemented a White House Rural Economic Forum and the release of a White House Rural Council report, “Jobs and Economic Security for Rural America.” One of the primary goals of the Council is to deploy broadband to 7 million rural Americans currently unserved, which will help enable distance learning, health care, and of course—new jobs! (The ILEC Advisor: Obama Pledges Rural Jobs and Economic Growth).
Finally, who will ever forget AT&T’s preposterous claim that the merger with T-Mobile will create 96,000 jobs? Certainly not anyone who lived in DC these past few months, as AT&T blanketed the media with commercials and print ads touting this alleged benefit of the merger. On the same day that AT&T ceo Randall Stephenson told CNBC that the company would bring 5,000 international call center jobs back to the U.S, the Department of Justice slapped AT&T with the allegedly-shocking news (to AT&T anyway) that it had filed a suit to block the deal. (The Deal Advisor: Surprise, Surprise…DOJ Says “No Way” to AT&T – T-Mobile Merger).
September 2011: DC was still shaking and drying out from the August hurri-quake in early September, and the FCC responded by holding a public safety workshop on network reliability and outage reporting. Genachowski stated, “The hurricane and earthquake also shed light on ways we can continue to enhance our work to ensure the reliability of communications during and following disasters… Our experience with these events will inform our pending rulemaking on outage reporting… [and] our separate but related inquiry on network reliability.” Meanwhile, another threat to public safety has emerged over the last couple years in the form of rural call termination problems, but the FCC has moved much slower to address this issue than they did to address two East Coast natural disasters that caused very little disruption to communications networks. A large portion of the FCC’s September agenda was dominated by public safety, disaster preparation and network reliability topics.
A significant step in developing the White Space spectrum occurred on September 14 with Genachowski’s announcement of a 45-day public trial of the Spectrum Bridge Inc. White Space database. Genachowski explained, “Unleashing white space spectrum will enable a new wave of wireless innovation. It has the potential to exceed the billions of dollars in economic benefit from Wi-Fi, the last significant release of unlicensed spectrum, and drive private investment and job creation.” No word on how many hundreds of thousands of jobs the White Spaces may create, but definitely look for more progress on White Space spectrum development in 2012.
Job fever continued with the September 12 release of the Obama Administration’s American Jobs Act legislative proposal which included a “National Wireless Initiative” to repurpose underutilized spectrum through incentive auctions, reduce the federal deficit, and of course, create jobs (The ILEC Advisor: American Jobs Act Includes Wireless Initiative, Public Safety Network). Despite all of the heavy-duty job creation claims by the FCC, White House and telecom providers; some rural stakeholders warned that the FCC’s proposal for USF/ICC reform will actually eliminate jobs. Impact studies conducted by universities in New Mexico, Kansas, Colorado and Missouri made dire predictions about RLEC jobs, state and local taxes, RLEC wages, and total economic impact in their respective states. Although I was skeptical about some of the calculations, these impact studies definitely carried an important message about the value of RLECs to local and regional economies (The ILEC Advisor: New Mexico Study Depicts Life without USF, State USF Reform Impact Studies Predict RLEC “Death Spiral”).
October 2011: As the death of Steve Jobs rocked the galaxy, Genachowski’s October 6 announcement that the USF/ICC rules would indeed be on the October open meeting agenda launched the telecom industry into one final frenzy. Unfortunately, Genachowski’s big reveal did little to ease our anticipation as it gave very few solid clues as to what “devils” were lurking in the details of the Order. Genachowski predictably mentioned his visit to Diller, Nebraska and claimed the reforms will “spur billions of dollars in private investment and very significant job creation”— 500,000 jobs to be exact.
We expected the Order would be about 400-500 pages long, and would be released shortly after the October 27 Open Meeting, where it was approved unanimously. We were wrong… Although we had to wait a few more weeks for the rules, the Commissioners revealed enough at the Open Meeting for it to become clear that the ABC Plan/Consensus Framework/RLEC Plan were not adopted in entirety, or really at all. Thus began 3 weeks of general panic. (The ILEC Advisor: Finally – Genachowski’s Big Announcement on USF/ICC Reform).
The FCC threw the RLECs a bone on October 18 with a workshop to address rural call termination problems. The workshop was a good first step to publically bring attention to the pervasive issue, but it almost seemed “too little too late.” After all, these problems have been increasingly occurring for more than a year. Thousands upon thousands of calls have not reached their rural destinations, harming small businesses, threatening public safety and straining family relationships with great aunt Gertrude. Rural panelists urged the FCC to issue forfeitures and fines to companies found intentionally blocking or degrading calls to high-cost rural areas, but so far no actions have been taken. Expect this issue to rear its ugly head in 2012. (The ILEC Advisor: FCC Finally Gets the Message about Rural Call Termination Problems, Rural Panelists Discuss Call Termination Problems – Causes, Effects, Solutions).
Also notable in October, the Net Neutrality rules finally stopped collecting dust in the Office of the Federal Register storage room. Political polarization over the rules became almost too much to handle. Lawsuits from the left and right popped up faster than you can say “anti-discrimination,” and we can all look forward to a 2012 court showdown between Verizon, Free Press, the FCC and others at the U.S. Appeals Court in Washington. (The ILEC Advisor: Net Neutrality Fight Intensifies – In Washington Anyway).
While not without hurricane-force excitement, the early fall months were certainly the calm before the real storm—look for the final installment of “2011: The Regulatory Year in Review” covering November and December next week!