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Entries in Time Warner Cable (6)

Thursday
Jun042015

Charter Communications Announces Merger with Time Warner Cable

U.S. cable provider Charter Communications (NASDAQ: CHTR) announced on Sunday, May 26th that it had reached an agreement to merge with one of its competitors, Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) in a deal worth approximately $78.7 billion.  The deal marks Charter’s second major acquisition in the last few months, when the firm announced on March 31st that it had acquired over an 80 percent stake in Bright House Networks. 

Valuation Analysis and Deal Metrics

Transaction Facts

  • Charter Communications announced on May 26, 2015 that is was merging with cable competitor Time Warner Cable for approximately $195.71 per share. 
  • Charter will fund the deal primarily through equity, along with new and existing debt, as well as cash.
  • The transaction has an equity value of approximately $56.7 billion.
  • Expected to close by the end of 2015.
  • The deal includes a $2.0 billion breakup fee.

Strategic Considerations

  • Transaction is expected to generate approximately $800.0 million in cost synergies. 
  • Transaction may give Charter more leverage in negotiating contracts with programmers. 
  • Transaction significantly improves opportunities for Wi-Fi service offerings. 
  • Including Bright House and Time Warner Cable, Charter’s 2014 pro forma revenue would have increased from $9.1 billion to $35.7 billion. 
  • Transaction makes it so that Charter is able to compete with the heavy competition amongst the top cable companies in the video marketplace, which as of now includes Comcast, Dish, and DirecTV & AT&T (deal awaiting approval).

JSICA's Take

  • Charter-TWC transaction, when compared to some of the priced transactions in this industry since the beginning of 2012, comes in relatively in line with those multiples.
  • The average EV/LTM Revenue for priced transactions since 2012 was approximately 3.2x, compared to 3.4x in this transaction.
  • The average EV/LTM OIBDA for priced transactions since 2012 was about 8.6x, compared to 9.3x in this transaction.
  • Compared to last year’s proposed Comcast-TWC deal that was terminated, Charter paid 0.2x more EV/LTM Revenue and 0.5x more EV/LTM OIBDA to merge with Time Warner.
  • The deal seems to be much more attractive financially when compared to the recent cable deal in which Altice (AMS:ATC) agreed to acquire 70% of U.S. cable company, Suddenlink, which came in at roughly 3.9x EV/LTM Revenue and 10.0x EV/TTM OIBDA.

Currently, the FCC is looking into this transaction to determine how American consumers would benefit as a result of this merger, if it were to be approved.

Tuesday
Mar202012

Large ISPs Will Act to Stop Online Piracy

ISP-Content Industry “Graduated Response” Anti-Piracy Program Begins July 1

The tech industry scored big when the controversial Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) and Protect IP Act (PIPA) were essentially killed earlier this year, but the demise of these shoddy legislative initiatives was not accompanied by the demise of online piracy. The problem still exists, and many tech insiders expect further legislation will come up, likely after the 2012 election. Meanwhile, law enforcement and the content and Internet industries will continue to take matters into their own hands to stop online piracy as best as they can. On March 14, CNET reported that several large ISPs (Comcast, Cablevision, Verizon, Time Warner Cable, and others) will roll out their own anti-piracy measures starting on July 1, 2012.

CNET explained that these programs have been in the pipeline for at least a year, but since they were initially announced, “the ISPs have been very quiet about their antipiracy measures.” The quiet period apparently ended last week at the Association of American Publishers’ annual meeting in New York with an announcement by Cary Sherman, ceo of the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA). The anti-piracy programs will be based on a “graduated response” system, where suspected infringers will be notified several times that they are venturing into illegal activity. “If the customer doesn’t stop, the ISP is then asked to send out ‘confirmation notices’ asking that they confirm they have received the notice. At that time, the accused customer will also be informed of the risks they incur if they don’t stop pirating material. If the customer is flagged for pirating again, the ISP can then ratchet up the pressure,” CNET explained. Possible penalties include throttling and suspending service, but “not one of the service providers has agreed to permanently terminate service.”

The ISPs’ efforts are supported by the RIAA and the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA), who also strongly supported SOPA and PIPA much to the chagrin of most of the tech industry (ISPs were generally mum on SOPA/PIPA, possibly because some of the biggest names were already in the process of designing their own anti-piracy efforts without overarching legislation). According to CNET, the content associations and ISPs have been working together on anti-piracy efforts for a long time with support of the government, which contributed to RIAA and MPAA believing “they had the momentum to get antipiracy legislation passed in Congress.” CNET adds, “They were wrong, of course.”

Supporters of the ISP-as-traffic-cop programs “say this could become the most effective antipiracy program ever,” because “network providers are in the best position to fight against illegal file sharing.” This statement naturally brings up several questions, most notably why exactly it should be an ISP’s responsibility to protect copyrighted property of which it has no specific financial ties to, just because it is technically in a position to do so.

There are also questions about whether small ISPs will jump onboard. A DailyTech article explains, “Of course not all ISPs are likely onboard. Implementation of the scheme will likely be expensive, though it may yield a net payoff, depending on how well it works at discouraging piracy. Smaller ISPs—such as municipal Wi-Fi, small carriers, and other players—may find it infeasible to adopt similar schemes. After all, Comcast, TWC, and Verizon are some of the biggest ISPs in America.” To implement these graduated response systems, ISPs would have to develop specific databases and train staff; RIAA’s Sherman explained that “Every ISP has to do it differently depending on the architecture of its particular network.” In other words, it may take some trial and error before a truly effective solution is achieved. DailyTech also notes that the ISPs could incorrectly send notices to non-pirates, such as P2P gamers, which “could turn into a massive embarrassment;” and “lead subscribers to abandon an ISP en mass.”

It will be interesting to see if this anti-piracy initiative trickles down to small ISPs. From an RLEC perspective, the costs appear high in comparison to the benefits of becoming an Internet traffic cop.  

Thursday
Mar152012

Need for Retransmission Reform Dominates ACA Summit Agenda

Where Independent Cablecos are Furious, Genachowski is Pleased

Still stinging from inordinate increases in retransmission consent fees after the latest round of negotiations, independent cable providers in the American Cable Association (ACA) and ACA ceo Matthew Polka brought a clear message to the Hill on March 14-15,2012: “It’s time for change in Washington.” Independent cablecos badly want the FCC and/or Congress to intervene and reform the retransmission consent system before small companies see yet another 100-300% increase in retransmission costs. However, FCC chairman Julius Genachowski said he was actually pleased with the latest round of retransmission negotiations because blackouts were minimal. How, exactly, is the occurrence of any blackout—be it for 100 customers or 1m—"pleasing?"

Genachowski may not understand the realities of being a small cable operator any more than he understands the realities of being a small rural telecom operator. I attended the ACA Summit and couldn’t help but make connections between the similar struggles of RLECs and independent cablecos—in many cases, RLECs are also cablecos and must try to balance the equally daunting challenges of lost USF and ICC, cord-cutting phone and cable consumers, skyrocketing retransmission fees, competition from wireless and OTT, and increasing end user rates. Meanwhile, the independent industry has few (if any) strong allies at the FCC.

There may be more allies on the Hill though, and ACA chairwoman and ceo of WOW! Colleen Abdoulah emphasized the importance of strong advocacy. “ACA defends what’s right for these companies and their 7.5m customers,” she said in the opening remarks at the Summit. Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR) followed Abdoulah and discussed broad issues like the daunting political climate in DC and the economy. Pryor expressed his commitment to rural broadband, commenting, "Rural broadband will connect not only Jonesboro, Arkansas, to the world, but it also connects the world back to Jonesboro. That's the power of the Internet. We need to try to make it as widely available as we can and a lot of you all are going to be providing those services. So I'm a big rural broadband guy." Pryor also talked about issues he is working on like cybersecurity, digital privacy, identity theft, and federal agency reform. Pryor urged ACA Summit attendees to get involved in these issues, too: "You all should have a seat at that table. We need to hear from you.”

Genachowski took the stage next, where he answered questions from ACA’s Polka. USF reform came up almost immediately, and Genachowski made his usual comments—the old USF system was broken and the FCC did “something people didn’t think was possible, and moved away from old fashioned phone service.” Polka asked how the FCC will ensure that Connect America Funds are not used inefficiently, and Genachowski responded that ACA members should engage with the FCC and take requests for data seriously to make sure that money flows to areas where it is needed the most. Genachowski said CAF Phase II reverse auctions will be a great opportunity for independent cablecos to obtain support and expand into new areas. He also mentioned that the wireless white spaces may provide new opportunities for cablecos.

It was after a question about whether the FCC really understands the small cableco’s struggles with retransmission consent when Genachowski dropped the ball and said to an audience of companies who were recently gouged by broadcasters that the FCC was "pleased that the number of blackouts and very serious instances of consumer disruption was minimized.” Minimized? Compared to what? The recent blackouts were high profile and impacted customers of large nationwide cable companies like Time Warner in primarily metro areas. One reason why the FCC may not have heard about many blackouts in small rural communities is because independent cablecos lack the leverage (or wiliness to lose customers) to fight back when broadcasters demand outrageously high retransmission fees. So, just because blackouts were allegedly “minimized,” according to Genachowski, this definitely does not mean that the latest round of retransmission negotiations was “pleasing.” For small cablecos, it was anything but, which ACA Summit attendees heard plenty about in the afternoon panel on retransmission consent.

The retransmission consent panel featured perspectives from both sides of the retransmission consent fence, which made a lively and engaging discussion. A few notable comments and debates included:

  • When asked how long it might take for real retransmission reform, Cinnamon Mueller managing partner Barbara Esbin responded, “Let me whip out my crystal ball.” She added that she remains hopeful that reform will occur eventually, but “In general, reform in Washington take a very long time.” From the broadcaster perspective, Antoinette Cook Bush (partner, Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom) replied that “It doesn’t seem like the stars are aligned,” there isn’t widespread support for retransmission reform, and the current system is working fine.
  • Cristina Pauze, vp of regulatory affairs for Time Warner said what most of the audience was likely thinking during Genachowski’s speech: just because there were fewer blackouts, “that doesn’t mean it’s good!” Pauze does not think the FCC should condone what’s going on with retransmission fees, and the problem will not go away on its own.
  • Esbin acknowledged that although consumers have a choice in video programming, cable operators have no choice in where they get their broadcast programing: “You have to say yes,” she said. Esbin expects the increasing retransmission fees to continue, with “no obvious break in sight… unless the arms race of attacking the consumer wallet comes to an end.” She later emphasized that cable consumers cannot opt out to programming they do not want to pay for, like ESPN.
  • Antoinette Cook Bush explained that high retransmission fees are simply a product of the current market, competition, and the impact of the Internet and streaming video. She later explained that cable operators can just say “no” if broadcasters demand too much. Esbin shot back that the ability of a large company like Time Warner to say “no” is much different “than any provider in this room.”
  • Audience questions and comments confirmed that small operators are in a precarious situation with retransmission fees. One member explained, “If we went dark, we’d be ruined.” Another commented that the current system is very one-sided, “and that will kill the small operator.”

So, what happens next? The independent cable industry will surely pressure the FCC and Congress to reform retransmission consent rules, but as many ACA Summit participants explained, change does not come quickly in D.C.—just ask anyone who waited a decade for USF/ICC reform! When you think about how the video marketplace might look in 3-5 years, do you actually see retransmission fees decreasing simply by “free market” forces? If OTT programming options improve and continue to attract millions of subscribers, as predicted, broadcasters will feel the squeeze and continually heave cost recovery burdens on pay-TV operators. The problem was very clearly laid out at the ACA Summit, and hopefully the momentum to pressure lawmakers for reform will continue until lawmakers take action.

Sunday
Jan292012

Verizon-SpectrumCo Deal Stirs Unrest 

Tension Mounts over Verizon-Cable Company Commercial Agreements

Hot on the heels of the largest telecom non-merger in history, consumers and competitors are keeping up the momentum of hesitance towards telecom industry consolidation among big players. The proposed Verizon-SpectrumCo partnership, in which Verizon hopes to purchase underutilized AWS spectrum assets licensed to Comcast, Time Warner,  BrightHouse (collectively SpectrumCo) and Cox in exchange for about $4b and commercial agreements for bundled cable and wireless services, is being met with some backlash. Although it may be a bold move for Verizon and the cable companies to attempt such a deal in the wake of the failed AT&T/T-Mobile merger, the two deals are in fact quite different—SpectrumCo and Cox were not actual players in the wireless market, so Verizon isn’t effectively knocking out a major competitor. They are just knocking out a potential competitor…

One point of tension appears to be the “commercial agreements” between Verizon and the cable providers. A January 18, 2012 letter from a long list of opponents including C Spire, DIRECTV, Public Knowledge, Consumer Federation of America and Sprint to FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski explains that the public and industry should be able to scrutinize the entire deal, including commercial agreements. They argue, “Without the ability to review the larger transaction in its entirety, it is impossible to assess whether there will be public interest harms associated with this proposed transfer.”

Verizon, meanwhile, insists that “The Commercial Agreements have no bearing on whether the spectrum sale is in the public interest, do not require Commission approval, and for several reasons, do not need to be part of the formal record in this proceeding.” One such reason being that “the Commission—rightly—has never asserted authority to review such agreements or required parties to file such agreements, and there is no basis to do so here.”

The other point of tension is clearly the competitive impact of this deal. A Rural Cellular Association (RCA) January 19 ex parte filing mentions the deal, asserting, “This transaction would result in an unprecedented spectrum consolidation into the hands of the largest carriers and further increase Verizon Wireless and AT&T’s duopoly power.” This will surely be an issue of analysis for the FCC and DOJ, as well as analysis of potential public interest harms, but this particular deal is interesting and challenging simply because the cable providers were not actually using their spectrum to provide wireless services.

However, smaller wireless and wireline providers definitely have cause for concern. DSLreports.com’s Karl Bode explained last week, “The Verizon cable deal is of particular concern of small telcos like Windstream, CenturyLink, Frontier and Fairpoint. Such companies already lack the funds to seriously upgrade their networks to compete with faster cable speeds, and now have to deal with Verizon LTE services that in some instances offer faster speeds than these telcos’ landline services…The combined marketing muscle of Verizon and Comcast (or Time Warner Cable) would likely erode already weak competition in many of these more-rural markets.”

The FCC announced that petitions to deny are due February 21, 2012—JSI Capital Advisors will monitor this proceeding and report on issues of interest to the independent telecommunications industry.

Tuesday
Jun212011

The So-Called “Level Playing Field” for Broadband Networks

Source: The ILEC Advisor

A recent legislative decision in North Carolina provides interesting insight into the debate between public and private broadband networks. The new law (passed as bill HB129, or the "Level Playing Field Bill") imposes heavy bureaucratic obstacles to towns and cities hoping to build their own broadband networks, and it lessens competition for large broadband providers like Time Warner and CenturyLink. Critics of the law say that it does anything but "level the playing field" and instead sustains a monopoly in rural and underserved areas still suffering the broadband gap.

Read the full story here.