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Entries from March 1, 2012 - March 31, 2012

Thursday
Mar292012

Where Have All The Values Gone?

Our Annual Review of ILEC Values Indicated By Deals Announced During the Prior Year

2011 was a slow year for ILEC deals. We counted a measly six deals announced during the year, fewer than half of the 16 announced deals during the previous year. We surmised that the uncertainty surrounding the NPRM related to USF and ICC reform was keeping many would-be players on the sidelines.  And when ICC/USF funding is such a large component of some rural companies’ revenue streams, it’s not hard to imagine value estimates coming in all over the map. Who wants to buy a company if the buyer isn’t reasonably confident in the future revenue estimates of the target company? And there are probably a number of potential acquisition targets out there that turned down deals because the owners felt the target company was worth more than the price being offered.

When we analyze deals, we typically calculate multiples of revenue, OIBDA and connections, which give us an apples to apples comparison of different deals.  For example, during 2010, buyers paid an average of 2.8x revenue and $2,060 per connection. Any deal multiples coming in significantly different than the averages indicates we should take a look to see if something else is going on with the target property.  In 2009 and 2008, the average multiples were 2.1x and 2.7x revenue and $1,650 and $3,193 per connection, respectively. So clearly there was a downward trend from 2008 to 2009, but 2010 multiples indicated values were perhaps on the rebound. And 2011?

Because only one of the six announced deals during 2011 disclosed the price – Otelco agreed to pay $4.5m to acquire Shoreham Telephone – we’re unable to calculate the multiples implied by the other five observed deals.  Based on Shoreham’s 2010 revenue of approximately $2.4m and 4,975 access line equivalents, Otelco paid 1.9x revenue and $905 per connection for Shoreham Telephone.  Based on this data point, it appears values have fallen precipitously since 2010.  Without any other 2011 deal multiples it’s difficult to know where in the range these multiples fall, from average to outlier. Nevertheless, this is a deal values article, and it’s important to look at the few data points available to estimate what has happened to deal values over the last year, and what to expect in the future. 

A second data point for us to analyze is Consolidated Communications’ recently announced deal to acquire SureWest. Announced on February 6, 2012, Consolidated will pay 2.2x revenue and $1,548 per connection for SureWest. These multiples are higher than the Shoreham/ Otelco deal, but still down from 2010 multiples.  Based on these two deals, one announced in 2011 and one in 2012, we could infer a couple of different trends.  It’s possible that deal values have hit their lows, and are just bouncing along the bottom.  Or, more likely, we are starting to see a greater divergence between the values of large and small properties.  Large companies such as SureWest can command a premium because of the scale and diversity of operations.  Generally speaking, smaller companies with fewer connections and less diverse operations have more difficulty adapting to the changing telecommunications industry, and values suffer as a result.  Nevertheless, in the past, industry averages that included large public companies provided a reasonable benchmark against which we could compare smaller transactions.  This may no longer be the case. 

It used to be the case that a buyer would pay more than $3,100 per connection, as each connection provided for a relatively stable recurring revenue stream.  And historically, there was little competition for rural ILECs.  These were the glory days, and for a while it seemed they would last forever.  But all that has begun to change.  Access lines have declined in recent years as customers switch to wireless and VoIP.  If the connection multiple for the SureWest acquisition is any indication, buyers are only willing to pay about half of what they would have paid a few years ago for each connection (less than a third if the Shoreham multiple is the new norm), and if connections are falling….well, you get the idea.  Generally speaking, this doesn’t bode well for the value owners of ILECs can realize through sales of their companies.  Additionally, although there is far more certainty surrounding ICC/USF reform now that the NPRM has been released, future USF funding will be targeted more towards expanding broadband and wireless services to unserved areas.  Of course many ILECs already provide other services, be it Internet, video, or wireless, and those that can refocus investment on new revenue streams and maintain some level of high cost support may well see a resurgence in value.

Thursday
Mar292012

Verizon Fills Gap with Purchase of Cellular One Assets

Deals for Wireless Network and Cellular License on PA/NY Border

While Verizon’s blockbuster deal with the cablecos has ran into some friction of late, the wireless giant recently closed a much smaller transaction. On March 14, the company announced that it had completed its purchase of the operating assets of Cellular One of Northeast Pennsylvania from US Cellular for an undisclosed sum.

The deal includes US Cellular’s cell block B license KNKN800 along with the associated common carrier point-to-point microwave licenses, and Cellular One’s customers in Pike and Wayne Counties.  According to the 2010 census, the two counties are home to a combined population of around 110,197.  Cellular One began its operations in the region in 2000, starting with 8 cell sites and an analog cellular network. The company has since added a CDMA digital cellular voice network as an overlay and grown its cell tower count in the area to 23—assets Verizon will pick up with the purchase.

Although the deal is much smaller in scale than Verizon’s $3.6b spectrum buy from Comcast, Cox and Time Warner (among others), it fills a spectrum gap in Verizon’s Pennsylvania network.  The 800 MHz cellular license it acquired covers the Pennsylvania 5 market (CMA616).  While Verizon held 700 MHz, AWS and broadband PCS spectrum covering parts of Wayne and Pike counties pre-acquisition, it did not own any 850 MHz cellular licenses—the frequency band principally used in Verizon’s nationwide network. Pre-deal, PA5 was the lone market in Pennsylvania in which Verizon lacked control of an 850 MHz license. Post-transaction Verizon now owns 59 MHz of spectrum below 1 GHz covering the two counties.

According to its website, Cellular One of Northeast Pennsylvania serves approximately 50,000 mobile phone users, which Verizon will inherit.  In the near term, the transfer of ownership to Verizon should be transparent to these customers.  Verizon has indicated that it will continue to operate as Cellular One during the next few months while it converts the US Cellular network to Verizon specifications.

Down the line, Verizon’s newly acquired customers could be the beneficiaries of an upgraded network and faster speeds. In its application to the FCC, Verizon stated that it plans to deploy 4G LTE in the PA5 market.  Verizon also pointed to this planned investment to support its argument that the transaction serves the public interest and creates more competition in the region.

We have no details on the amount Verizon shelled out for the US Cellular assets; however it is unlikely there was a long line of bidders knocking on US Cellular’s door. AT&T, T-Mobile and Sprint already control licenses in the PA5 market, and the region is sparsely populated to begin with.  For Verizon however, the acquisition has a clear upside. It adds 50,000 wireless subs, and by filling its spectrum gap Verizon puts an end to the hefty roaming fees it had been paying in the PA5 market.   

Thursday
Mar292012

USTelecom Confronts Festering Problems with USF Contributions

Comprehensive Reform Encouraged, Some Solutions Offered in Letter to FCC

USTelecom’s vice president of policy David Cohen filed a letter to the FCC on March 28, 2012 outlining extensive problems with the current USF contributions methodology and recommending several near-term administrative reforms to clean up the system. USTelecom argues that the current system is “rife with outdated methods and procedures that create waste, inefficiency and destabilizing competitive discrepancies.” USTelecom does not believe that the problems will be fixed simply by broadening the contributions base—rather; the FCC should immediately consider some housekeeping and clarification measures for the underlying contributions rules and procedures.

USTelecom identifies three categories of pervasive problems with the current system. First, the service classifications are not reflective of the actual marketplace: “With the rapid introduction of…new broadband IP-based services into the market, the dividing line between telecommunications services on one hand, and information services on the other, is becoming increasingly blurred.” The FCC has failed to keep the USF contributions methodology on track with market momentum, which USTelecom believes has slowed down the deployment of IP services. Second, USTelecom believes that jurisdictional distinctions like state boundaries “are simply irrelevant to how consumers select and buy communications services.” Lastly, the resale/wholesale distinction is “burdensome and ineffective;” and “turns wholesale providers into enforcement agents of the Commission, requiring them to collect certifications from reseller customers attesting to USF contributions.

Taken together, the result of these foundational cracks in the contributions system creates “significant competitive inequities” and regulatory uncertainty. For example, USTelecom explains that “the current system only captures contributions from a few among many providers that offer competing voice services, which unfairly penalizes traditional voice providers (and ultimately their customers) and artificially skews the market.” Google Voice, Skype, and Magic Jack are called out for not contributing to USF directly, despite the fact that they compete directly with contributors and use contributors’ networks.

As for solutions to bring USF contributions in line with the market, USTelecom focuses primarily on administrative fixes and acknowledges that comprehensive reform is likely to take a long time. USTelecom encourages the FCC to move forward with a contributions reform proceeding, and suggests that the FCC abide by several guiding principles including stability and predictability; competitive neutrality; equitable and minimal consumer burden; and administrative efficiency—these principles are not unlike the FCC’s laudable and often-mentioned principles for USF and ICC reform.

USTelecom’s recommended immediate administrative reforms include:

  • A notice and comment on Form 499 instructional changes
  • Amnesty for good faith interpretations of Form 499 instructions
  • Symmetric contribution liability and refund periods, like a repeal of the one-year deadline to re-file Form 499A amendments
  • Reduced volatility in the contributions factor—specifically, adopt an annual factor instead of a quarterly factor
  • A rulemaking to address changes in the reseller exemption process
  • Reassessment of reporting safe harbors
  • Realistic prepaid calling reporting requirements

USTelecom asserts that “the current problems with USF contributions will continue to fester, plaguing competition, facilitating waste, and driving inefficiency” if the FCC does not act expeditiously to reform the system. Indeed, the contributions side of the USF cosmos is clearly flawed and will have negative impacts on the distributions side despite all of the FCC’s hard work to establish the Connect America Fund and fundamentally alter how telephony and broadband services are supported. As FCC Commissioner Robert McDowell said at the NTCA Legislative and Policy Conference last week, fixing USF “is like fixing a watch, each part touches all the others, so you have to fix them it all at the same time.”

Thursday
Mar292012

Even After House Victory, FCC Reform Act has Bleak Outlook

Rep. Walden Brings an FCC “Data Dump” to the Table--Literally

The Federal Communications Commission Process Reform Act (H.R. 3309) headed to the House floor on Tuesday, March 27, 2012. The so-called FCC Reform Act passed the House Energy and Commerce Committee 31-16 earlier this month and continued its winning streak with a 247-174 victory in the House. The bad news (or good news, depending on your views) is that H.R. 3309’s star has probably burned out. The bill is not expected to pass in the Democratic-controlled Senate, and the Obama Administration has already expressed that it does not approve the legislation—and this was before the House vote occurred. Nevertheless, D’s and R’s waged war for several hours on Tuesday about whether or not the bill would be a “straightjacket” on the FCC’s authority.

The FCC Reform Act has stimulated interesting reactions from government and industry. In anticipation of the House vote, bill sponsor Representative Greg Walden (R-OR) published an opinion piece in the March 27 issue of Politico. Walden opened by arguing that the FCC would be “well-served” to follow the old adage “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Walden is referring to the booming telecom and technology industry, where “landline, wireless and cable providers have invested $66b in broadband infrastructure in 2010,” and “the U.S. is leading in cutting-edge technologies.” Walden asserts, “Before the FCC interferes in that marketplace with regulation, it should find compelling evidence that something is broken and that its remedy will likely improve the situation.”

The FCC Reform Act would require the FCC to conduct cost-benefit analysis on all regulations and identify definitive market failures before imposing new rules. Among other proposals, the FCC would also have to release the full text of rulemakings to the public 30 days prior to voting. The FCC, Walden argues, is broke and “does need fixing.” From the opposing side, Representative Henry Waxman (D-CA), argued that the H.R.3309 “would turn the FCC watchdog into a lapdog for industry.” The debate went back and forth along party lines in this style with very little compromise or bipartisan agreement. Although the debate strayed into some farfetched territory at times, some issues were close to home for the rural telecom industry.

Take the USF/ICC Transformation Order—we don’t need to remind you what it was like for those three weeks between when the FCC voted on the Order (a “press release,” according to Walden) and when the 750-page Order was actually released. Walden furthermore expressed considerable frustration with the FCC’s “data dump” of thousands of pages of documents just days before the FCC approved the unseen Order. Walden and other supporters of H.R. 3309, like Representative Lee Terry (R-NE), argued that only companies with a “house full of lawyers” could possibly process all of that information in such a short period of time. “Rural Nebraskans don’t have that opportunity,” said Terry. Walden brought dozens of heavy-duty notebooks containing thousands of pages of data to the House floor to illustrate just how much information the FCC expected the public to digest in 48 hours. Terry and Walden believe that the FCC Reform Act could effectively fix some of these pervasive transparency issues at the FCC, and Terry called the legislation “fairly practical and necessary.”

One point of contention in H.R. 3309 is the proposal to limit the FCC’s ability to impose merger conditions—this may be an area where rural telecom industry supporters of the legislation will stumble. Merger conditions are intended to promote the public interest in some way or another, and that often includes concessions like build-out requirements and rural market attention (just consider what might happen if the Verizon-SpectrumCo/Cox deal is approved without any conditions, or if AT&T-T-Mobile had been approved without conditions). Bloomberg BNA explained in a March 28 summary of the House vote, “As stipulated in the bill, merger conditions must be ‘narrowly tailored to remedy a harm that arises as a direct result of the specific transfer or specific transaction.’ The FCC also would not be able to accept any ‘voluntary commitments’ from merging companies that are outside the scope of its statutory authority,” which would “alter the ability of the FCC to impose conditions in the public interest,” according to Representative Anna Eshoo (D-CA). The Comcast-NBCU merger was brought up repeatedly, and although “what’s done is done,” voluntary commitments like the low-income broadband adoption program might not exist in world where the FCC Reform Act is the law of the land.

In reality, it is unlikely that this bill will even reach the Senate floor. Bloomberg BNA reported that “Democrats on the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation have expressed no intention of taking up the measure. In addition, President Obama has come out strongly against the bill.” Regardless of the bleak outlook, the telecom industry is largely supportive and optimistic. The Hill’s Hillicon Valley reported reactions from the industry on March 28. NCTA president and former FCC chairman Michael Powell commented, “The regulatory framework envisioned by this reform legislation will ensure that private enterprise can continue to invest and innovate with more consistent and precise federal government oversight.”

What can we in the independent telecom industry learn from the H.R. 3309 debate? Even if the bill doesn’t go any further, it has at least brought attention to the FCC’s transparency and process defects. The rural telecom industry did not hold back its feelings about the last-minute USF/ICC Order data dump or the 3 weeks of pure panic between the vote and the release of the Order—clearly some members of Congress heard our concerns, which is reassuring at least.

Thursday
Mar292012

T-Mobile Shopping Tower Assets Again

Source: Bloomberg

According to an article on Bloomberg, T-Mobile USA has hired TAP Advisors LLC to help sell wireless towers and raise cash for parent Deutsche Telekom AG, said people familiar with the matter.

Deutsche Telekom halted its plan to sell assets last year after agreeing to AT&T Inc.’s $39 billion bid for T-Mobile. As the deal collapsed in December because of regulatory hurdles, Timotheus Hoettges, the German company’s chief financial officer, said it would revisit the tower sale to help fund possible spectrum purchases and network expansion, the article reported.